In a recent blog post, I outlined how companies use field tests, modeling, statistical analysis, and laboratory studies to improve over time. Information is synthesized as part of an iterative process of continuous improvement. In this post, I discuss what happens when the process of continuous improvement runs into trouble. In uncertain environments (like subsurface shale), there is a tendency toward overconfidence. We need to act, and in doing so convince ourselves that we are making the right decision. Sometimes we hire experts who ‘confidently confirm’ our beliefs. This is symptomatic of a phenomenon called confirmation bias, where we tend to ignore new data and outcomes that contradict our initial beliefs. After committing to strong claims, we may have difficulty changing course when it becomes apparent that they are not consistent with observations. This can cause false beliefs to persist for years, long after they have been falsified by field data.
Professor Zoback in The Onion
This blog post reviews technical opportunities and challenges for next-generation geothermal systems. Multistage hydraulic stimulation, which has been transformative in the oil and gas space, has the potential to create a breakthrough for geothermal energy.
By Craig Cipolla, Garrett Fowler, and Mark McClure HOUSTON– Hess Corp. applied advanced numerical modeling
Recorded ARMA HFC ‘Warm-Up’ series webinar – A Continuous Fracture Front Tracking Algorithm with Multi-Layer Tip Elements (MuLTipEl)
In this talk delivered for ARMA HFC ‘Warm-Up’ webinar Series, Egor Dontsov outlines his latest work at ResFrac, which raises the bar in hydraulic fracture modeling by creating a continuous fracture front tracking algorithm with multi-layer tip elements (MuLTipEl).
What’s New: HFTC, the Parent/Child Industry Study, HFTS2, Supercritical Geothermal, DFIT, and Automated History Matching
This post reviews some of the more interesting things happening at ResFrac right now: HFTC paper with Apache on Calibrating models with offset fiber, parent/child well industry study, HFTS2 project, engineering geothermal systems, DFIT’s and automated history matching.